Possible scenario
Europe links platforms
20% Chance
The UK effort becomes interoperable with European wholesale tokenized settlement work, especially the ECB's Pontes platform. This path is plausible because wholesale settlement is moving faster than retail CBDCs and banks want common standards for cross-border transfers.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.8%
- Technology +0.5%
- Business Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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