Possible scenario
Interim Deal Advances
38% Chance
The most likely positive path is a narrow interim arrangement rather than a grand bargain. Trump can claim pressure produced concessions, while Tehran receives limited economic relief without formally abandoning its nuclear leverage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
- Consumer Services +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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