Possible scenario
Broader Crypto Losses
30% Chance
Investigators discover that the stolen iOS root access was used primarily to exfiltrate seed phrases, exchange API keys, and mobile wallet credentials. The market impact is concentrated in crypto-linked equities and Bitcoin rather than the broader equity market.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Finance -0.2%
Tickers
- AAPL-2.5%
- COIN-1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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