Possible scenario
Energy Infrastructure Hit
20% Chance
The Houthis retaliate with another attack on Saudi energy or aviation infrastructure. Even a temporary disruption would revive memories of the 2019 Abqaiq attack and force markets to price higher supply-risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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