Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
25% Chance
Oman, with backing from the United States and the United Nations, pushes Riyadh and the Houthis back toward a limited de-escalation channel. Both sides have incentives to avoid a repeat of sustained attacks on Saudi oil and aviation infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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