Possible scenario
Controlled Border Escalation
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia continues a limited air campaign against Houthi missile and drone infrastructure after attacks on Riyadh airport fuel tanks and Saudi energy assets. The conflict remains dangerous but largely contained to Yemen and the Saudi-Yemen border, with no confirmed major Saudi oil-output loss.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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