Possible scenario
Trump Plan Dominates
20% Chance
The Trump administration treats Macron's UN remarks as confirmation that Europe is not central to its Gaza diplomacy. Washington leans on Gulf partners and Israel to advance a U.S.-designed framework, while France is left defending a more multilateral recognition track.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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