Possible scenario
Emergency Measures Imposed
22% Chance
The protest wave escalates despite Macron's prosecution threat, forcing the government to impose curfews or emergency public-order measures. This would be a material political-stability shock for France and a modest global risk-off event.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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