Possible scenario
Crackdown Contains Riots
42% Chance
Security forces prevent protesters from reaching the Élysée Palace and regain control around Paris, Marseille, and Limoges. The government emphasizes prosecutions for looting while keeping the 2027 budget framework largely intact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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