Possible scenario
Budget Concessions Offered
25% Chance
Macron attempts to defuse the unrest by pausing part of the €43 billion 2027 austerity package and inviting unions, mayors, and parliamentary leaders to emergency talks. This lowers immediate street-risk but introduces fiscal uncertainty.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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