Possible scenario
Netanyahu Lead Holds
38% Chance
Netanyahu remains competitive because his base treats Trump’s endorsement as validation, while Vance’s refusal limits any broader swing. The race stays focused on Israeli security, cost-of-living issues, and coalition math rather than U.S. Republican endorsements.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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