Regional War Spillover

The tanker explosions become the trigger for a broader Gulf security crisis involving Iranian missiles, U.S. forces, and Arab oil-export infrastructure. This is less likely than a contained maritime fight, but the accumulated timeline of mines, tanker attacks, and anti-ship missiles makes spillover a credible tail risk.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.