Possible scenario
Political Carve-Out
18% Chance
Farm-state Republicans, Kansas Democrats, meatpackers and cattle groups press the White House to avoid shutdowns in critical food infrastructure. The administration does not abandon deportations, but it shifts toward audits, targeted arrests and advance coordination at major plants.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
- TSN+1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.