Possible scenario
Managed Institutionalization
45% Chance
The Joint Warfighter Evaluation becomes a formal promotion and retention screen rather than an open-ended purge. Pete Hegseth and the Department of War use the process to enforce fitness, combat-readiness, and command-culture standards while avoiding a direct confrontation with Congress or combatant commanders.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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