Possible scenario
Legal Congressional Pushback
25% Chance
Congress, inspectors general, and military-law specialists challenge the process as insufficiently transparent and potentially politicized. The administration keeps the program alive but is forced to define written criteria, appeal channels, and limits on retroactive personnel action.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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