Criminal Inquiry Escalates
−0.4%
A less likely but higher-impact path is that investigators find evidence suggesting intentional interference, falsified custody records, or unauthorized access to election materials. That would move the matter beyond ordinary election administration and into state or federal criminal review.
What it moves
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.