Possible scenario
Risk-Off Duration Shock
20% Chance
A less likely but important risk is that the yield move becomes a broader financial-condition shock. Poor liquidity, weak auctions, or forced de-risking could push investors out of credit and equities even if no formal policy event occurs.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.5%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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