Possible scenario
Policy Patience Holds
30% Chance
The Federal Reserve and Treasury treat the move as a market repricing rather than a crisis. Officials avoid emergency intervention, but their communication determines whether markets hear a stabilizing message or a higher-for-longer warning.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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