Possible scenario
Orderly Bear Steepening
35% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of the recent selloff without a disorderly market break. Investors demand more compensation for duration risk because of large deficits, elevated issuance needs, and uncertainty over inflation persistence.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.5%
- Technology -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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