Possible scenario
Expanded Federal Probe
27% Chance
U.S. law enforcement could connect the honeypot warning to the prior office-bugging charge and other suspected attempts to obtain OpenAI secrets. This would turn the matter from a company security memo into a broader counterintelligence investigation.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Business Services +0.2%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.6%
- AAPL-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.