Possible scenario
Vivaldi Gains Consolidate
42% Chance
Ukraine is most likely to consolidate its new positions east and northeast of Lyman rather than immediately overextend. The recent sequence of gains suggests Russian encirclement plans near Sloviansk have been disrupted, but sustaining logistics and artillery cover will determine the pace of follow-on operations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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