Possible scenario
Russian Line Stabilizes
25% Chance
Moscow may commit reserves and artillery to stop further Ukrainian movement before it threatens Kreminna or Svatove. This would not reverse the full Ukrainian gain, but it would turn the Lyman sector back into an attritional fight.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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