Possible scenario
Russia Escalates Retaliation
18% Chance
Russia could respond to battlefield setbacks with long-range strikes against Ukrainian logistics, power infrastructure, and rail nodes. This would raise near-term geopolitical risk but would still be below a regime-change or systemic crisis threshold.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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