Possible scenario
Limited Retaliation
32% Chance
Riyadh uses the Mecca Pact pledge to justify calibrated military action against Houthi missile and drone infrastructure. Turkey and Pakistan provide intelligence, air-defense support or logistical assistance, but the operation remains geographically limited to Yemen and nearby maritime lanes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.6%
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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