Possible scenario
Iran-Linked Escalation
20% Chance
Iran-aligned forces test the new defense pledge with a higher-impact attack on Saudi or Gulf infrastructure. The Mecca Pact then risks becoming a vehicle for a broader confrontation involving Iran, Israel, U.S. forces and Red Sea shipping lanes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.