Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
38% Chance
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan translate the pledge into defensive coordination rather than immediate offensive action. The pact strengthens deterrence against Houthi and Iranian-linked attacks while allowing Riyadh to avoid a broader regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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