Possible scenario
Northern Front Escalates
25% Chance
Public outrage in Israel and Hezbollah's refusal to accept responsibility push both sides into a sharper round of retaliation. The ceasefire remains formally in place but loses practical force across parts of the border zone.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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