Possible scenario
Controlled Bank Rollout
42% Chance
The most likely path is a cautious, bank-led deployment focused on interbank and corporate treasury use cases rather than mass retail payments. OSFI’s clarification that tokenized deposits remain bank deposits lowers legal uncertainty, while the joint venture structure reduces fragmentation among RBC, TD, Scotiabank, BMO, CIBC and National Bank.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- RY+0.9%
- TD+0.8%
- BNS+0.7%
- BMO+0.7%
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.