Possible scenario
Pricing Power Extends
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Lumentum converts sold-out capacity into higher average selling prices, prepayments, and firmer multi-year visibility. Hyperscalers continue prioritizing 800G and 1.6T optical links for AI clusters, making indium phosphide capacity the key bottleneck.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
Tickers
- LITE+7.6%
- COHR+2.9%
- FN+2.1%
- AAOI+1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.