Possible scenario
Capacity Race Accelerates
25% Chance
Competitors and contract manufacturers respond to Lumentum's sold-out book by expanding capacity for high-speed optical engines and transceivers. This supports the broader AI optical supply chain but may gradually reduce Lumentum's scarcity premium after 2028.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
Tickers
- LITE+4.4%
- COHR+4.3%
- AAOI+3.6%
- FN+3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.