Possible scenario
Protests Reignite Locally
25% Chance
The case becomes another symbol of post-2022 repression and triggers limited demonstrations, vigils, or campus actions. The state is still likely to contain unrest quickly, but the risk of wider mobilization rises because the execution count and treatment of relatives create a clearer grievance narrative.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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