Possible scenario
Foreign Sanctions Response
20% Chance
Western governments use the case as part of a broader response to protester executions and prison abuses. The most likely measures are symbolic but targeted sanctions on judges, prison officials, and IRGC-linked entities rather than broad oil restrictions.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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