Possible scenario
Coercion Contains Fallout
42% Chance
Iranian authorities keep the case largely inside the security-judicial system, using prison pressure, state media, and intimidation of relatives to blunt public sympathy. This is the most likely near-term path because the judiciary and intelligence services have repeatedly used coerced statements and family restrictions after protest-related executions.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.