Possible scenario
Managed Détente Deepens
42% Chance
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan use the UN meeting to reinforce the 2023 China-brokered normalization. The most likely path is incremental diplomacy focused on consular issues, Gulf maritime security, Yemen, and avoiding direct spillover from Israel-Iran tensions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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