Possible scenario
Files Block Progress
18% Chance
The meeting exposes unresolved disputes over Yemen, Iraq-based militias, maritime security, and Iran’s nuclear file. Both governments keep diplomatic ties intact, but regional hedging resumes and investors rebuild a small oil-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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