Possible scenario
Wider Gulf Escalation
30% Chance
A follow-on attack would signal that the Oct. 21 incident is part of a broader campaign against Gulf shipping rather than an isolated STS-related strike. This would move the event into a material geopolitical escalation, with crude, tanker insurance, and risk assets reacting sharply over the next one to two sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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