Possible scenario
Contained STS Targeting
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the attacks remain focused on ship-to-ship transfer activity and suspected shadow-fleet logistics rather than Iraq's formal export terminals. Iran-linked forces or deniable maritime assets continue harassment, but Iraq, the US Fifth Fleet, and UKMTO prevent immediate spillover into a full loading disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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