Stalemate Hardens

The most likely outcome is a continuation of the current managed stalemate: María Corina Machado remains outside Venezuela while Washington preserves its channel to Nicolás Maduro. The Trump administration denies deliberately blocking her return but avoids steps that would disrupt its earlier arrangement with Caracas.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.