Possible scenario
Sanctions Escalation
20% Chance
The accusation becomes a catalyst for a harder U.S. line, especially if congressional Republicans and Venezuelan exile groups portray the administration as conceding too much to Maduro. Washington responds with targeted sanctions, tighter travel rules or a review of oil-related permissions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Tickers
- -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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