Possible scenario
Limited U.S. Reversal
25% Chance
Political backlash from Machado’s accusation pushes the Trump administration to clarify its position and offer a limited route for her participation. Washington tries to repair credibility with the Venezuelan opposition without fully abandoning engagement with Maduro.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Tickers
- CVX+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.