Possible scenario
Temporary Bounce Fades
22% Chance
The market concludes that the 0.5% print overstates the underlying pace of expansion. Rising unemployment, fiscal drag and softer household balance sheets keep investors cautious about the second half of 2026.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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