Possible scenario
Soft Landing Extends
40% Chance
The GDP beat is treated as evidence that the U.K. economy is growing despite higher unemployment and prior fiscal tightening. Investors mark up near-term growth expectations while still assuming inflation remains close enough to target for gradual BOE easing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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