Possible scenario
BOE Cuts Delayed
28% Chance
The GDP beat makes the Bank of England more cautious about cutting rates too quickly, especially after earlier signs of sticky domestic costs. Rate-sensitive parts of the market underperform while banks benefit from a higher-for-longer rate path.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Utilities -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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