Possible scenario
Supreme Court Expansion
35% Chance
The Justice Department is likely to ask the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit’s latest as-applied ruling because it further weakens 18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(1) after Range and the 2026 drug-user decision. The most likely path is a high-court case clarifying when nonviolent criminal convictions justify permanent firearm disarmament.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
- SWBI+2.2%
- RGR+1.9%
- POWW+1.4%
- SPWH+1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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