Possible scenario
Circuit Split Deepens
20% Chance
Different federal appeals courts are likely to apply Bruen, Range, Rahimi, and the 2026 drug-user ruling unevenly. A widening split would make Supreme Court review more likely while producing different firearm-disability rules across states.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
- SWBI+1.0%
- RGR+0.9%
- POWW+0.8%
- SPWH+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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