Possible scenario
US Restraint Prevails
25% Chance
The White House, Pentagon, and Gulf partners pressure Israel to postpone unilateral action. Netanyahu keeps the regime-change order in place but accepts a temporary delay in exchange for intelligence sharing, air-defense support, or new sanctions on Tehran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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