Possible scenario
Covert Pressure Campaign
38% Chance
Israel prioritizes intelligence, cyberattacks, sabotage of IRGC infrastructure, and support for dissident networks rather than immediate large-scale airstrikes. This is the most likely path because it fits Netanyahu's regime-change objective while limiting the risk of an open break with Trump and the Pentagon.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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