Possible scenario
Import Mix Stabilizes
25% Chance
Indian refiners adapt to reduced Russian intake after the US tariff law by rebuilding Middle East crude supply. Availability improves, but the loss of discounted Russian barrels keeps refining economics under scrutiny.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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