Possible scenario
U.S.-Led Maritime Response
27% Chance
Washington responds with expanded convoying, air-defense patrols, and new rules for intercepting Iranian drones and missiles. The most likely U.S. preference is containment at sea, though another vessel hit could trigger limited strikes on launch sites.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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