Possible scenario
Selective Tanker Coercion
38% Chance
Iran shifts from broad disruption to a more discriminating campaign against U.S.-linked, Israel-linked, and sanction-enforcement cargoes. This lets Tehran maintain pressure while reducing the chance of an immediate U.S. strike package against Iranian territory.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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